In the inimitable words of Noel Fielding, "We're halfway frough!" (Can you tell I've spent part of this weird in-between timeless time bingeing the most recent season of Great British Bake Off, the source of all things pure and lovely and good in the world?)

Halfway through our series on the 12 Skills Fundraisers Need for the New Year. Rather than projections of what fundraising might be in the new year, we're tackling skills you can develop to be prepared for what may come.

Yesterday we talked Thinking Upstream. Today we're talking about Downstream Planning.

Here we are on the last day of the year, December 31.

Which means some people are still closing out year-end work, some people are already mentally in January, and some people are staring into a mug of coffee wondering how we’re here again, what day it actually is and if there's any more of that breakfast pie left.

That makes today a perfect day to talk about Downstream Planning.

Not as a productivity hack.Not as pessimism.Not as an attempt to predict the future, but as a way to stop being surprised by things we already know tend to happen.

Downstream Planning Is About Reality, Not Rigidity

Planning is much simpler than a "if this, then that" exercise. In fact, planning is less about if and more about when.

It’s acknowledging that there are rapids downstream and deciding in advance how you’ll respond when you hit them.

It's a simple shift, but a critical one.

In some ways, yes, all planning is "downstream" because it's looking at the future and where we'll be. But emphasizing "downstream", first, makes a great mnemonic tie-in to "Thinking Upstream", and, secondly, “Downstream” reminds us that planning isn’t about predicting everything that might happen. It’s about acknowledging where pressure actually shows up — later, after decisions have been made, when real people are involved and conditions are imperfect. (em dash = mine, not AI's. Save the em dash.)

Upstream thinking helps us reduce avoidable problems. Downstream planning helps us respond calmly to the ones that remain.

It’s planning for the reality we know will arrive, not the ideal conditions we wish for.

Why We Don't Plan (Neuroscience! Psychology!)

People don’t avoid planning because they’re negative or afraid of failure.

It's a hard truth, but we tend to avoid planning because reacting is easier. Reacting is immediate, it feels productive, and it comes with an adrenaline rush and praise.

And we THRIVE on adrenaline and praise. We said it yesterday, "You don't get credit for the crisis you avoided that no-one knows about it"

Planning, on the other hand, is quiet. It uses more mental energy. It doesn’t produce instant results. And it often happens out of sight.

Add in fatigue, overload, and the myth that “plans don’t work,” and it’s easy to see why planning gets skipped.

But plans don’t fail because planning is pointless.

They fail because they’re treated as rigid predictions instead of flexible guides. Or they're never used.

A downstream fundraising plan isn't meant to live in a brand-approved, board-digestible, three-ring binder collecting dust on a shelf. It's a living, breathing, flexible guide to what's coming.

Planning Doesn't Look Like Work (But It Is)

Here’s another uncomfortable truth: planning doesn’t look like work.

The doing is what leadership sees: the major donor visits and asks. The appeals sent. The meetings held (oh how we love to meet to talk about what we might do!) The dollars deposited.

But imagine being able to walk into any new year, any board meeting, any budget conversation and say:

Not a hope, not a scramble, not a "this is the way we've always done it so we'll get what we always do. An actual plan that describes the activity and tactics you'll use to reach the goal. It's your roadmap for th eyear.

Planning is how you decide where to focus, what to prioritize, and which work actually matters.

It’s how you avoid confusing activity with progress.

But Will We Reach Our Goal?!?

Fundraisers get asked this all the time, and the honest answer is: we can’t know.

Donors are humans, not projections.

What we can know is this: we have created the conditions in which hitting the goal is possible.

We have a strategy. We have a sequence. We know where the dollars are expected to come from, and what we’ll do when they don’t arrive exactly as planned.

We're starting, Day One, with "We have to raise $xxxx, we need yyyy # of donors to do that from these levels and sources, and we have zzzz # of donors and dollars we can estimate returning (reason #872 why retention is so important)

That’s a radically different posture than spending the year asking, “Where is the money going to come from?”

What Downstream Planning Actually Looks Like

Downstream planning isn’t complicated.

It’s asking a few honest questions ahead of time:

• What can we count on with some level of confidence?

• What usually goes sideways for us?

• Where does pressure reliably show up?

• If something underperforms, who decides what changes?

• What stops first when capacity gets tight?

Answering those questions before you’re stressed reduces panic and chaos later.

Why This Matters At Year-End

Downstream planning doesn’t guarantee success.

Sorry. I know. I get it. I, too, want an Easy Button that will guarantee everything will go right. It doesn't exist, I'm sorry to say.

But it dramatically reduces high-volume, high-stress, low-return activity born out of urgency and fear.

It replaces scrambling with steadiness, surprise with preparedness, exhaustion with intention.

And on the last day of the year, that feels like a pretty good gift to give yourself.

One Simple Question To Carry Into January

As you head into the new year, you don’t need every answer.

Just this question:

What would feel easier if we planned for it now?

That question is a skill.

And it’s one worth practicing.